The Celtics are two wins from breaking a tie with the Lakers for the most NBA titles (they are tied with 17).
FOX Bet trading operations specialist Martin Pascual cited three key factors when it comes to wagering on the NBA Finals:
– Rest/fatigue. Boston survived consecutive Eastern Conference series that went seven games. Golden State last played on May 26.
– Home court. The Warriors are 9-0 at Chase Center this postseason prior to the Finals.
– Steph Curry. Golden State has a guard who is a two-time league MVP and is seeking his fourth NBA title.
“I will go with the team who has done it before and who is more rested,” Pascual said. “Another huge factor is home-court advantage as Golden State has not lost in Chase Center in the playoffs this year.
“This is also the year Steph Curry finally gets his Finals MVP.”
FOX Sports betting analyst Jason McIntyre acknowledged the logic of betting Curry to win Finals MVP. But McIntyre said there’s value in taking a shot with a former Michigan Wolverine who had a breakout season, averaging 18.5 points per game and shooting .925% from the line, which can be a valuable skill in the Finals.
“I’m not going to talk you out of a bet on Curry to win Finals MVP, but I’m going to talk you into taking a smaller long shot bet: Jordan Poole to win Finals MVP,” McIntyre said. “Yes, his numbers have dwindled since the Denver series, and he was often played off the court by the Mavs, who hunted him mercilessly.
“So where’s the value in Poole? This figures to be a defensive series (after Game 1). These have been two elite defenses all season, and the Celtics’ ability to switch on the perimeter is going to give the Warriors problems. The one guy who I believe can’t be stopped one-on-one by any Celtic defender is Poole.
“Boston will collapse on Curry, and they’re too disciplined to leave Klay Thompson. Poole’s offense is going to be necessary to win this series.”
PICK: Warriors in six games (+550 at time of pick, currently +475 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $57.50)
PICK: Steph Curry NBA Finals MVP (+160 at time of pick, currently -105 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $19.52)
PICK: Jordan Poole NBA Finals MVP (+6600 at time of pick, currently +10000 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $1,010)
RELATED: If you want to dig into more key stats for both teams, read here.
HOW THE ODDS HAVE MOVED THROUGHOUT THE FINALS
ODDS TO WIN NBA TITLE
Jayson Tatum, Celtics in control of NBA Finals ahead of Game 3? I SPEAK FOR YOURSELF
The NBA Finals is knotted up at 1-1 after the Golden State Warriors defeated the Boston Celtics in Game 2. Steph Curry poured in 29 points and Jordan Poole added 17 of his own. Celtics star Jayson Tatum notched 28 points but had a game leading minus 37 in the plus/minus statistic. Marcellus Wiley determines which team is in control of the NBA Finals, Celtics or Warriors.
Warriors @ Celtics (9 p.m. ET Friday, ABC; Game 4)
Point spread: Celtics -4 (Celtics favored to win by more than 4 points, otherwise Warriors cover)
Moneyline: Celtics -182 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.49 total); Warriors +135 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 214.5 points scored by both teams combined
NOTE: The previous 39 times teams have split the first two games of the NBA Finals, the Game 3 winner won the title 82% of the time.
Celtics @ Warriors (9 p.m. ET Monday, ABC; Game 5)
Point spread: No line available
Moneyline: No line available
Total scoring over/under: No line available
Celtics 116, Warriors 100
Point spread: Celtics (-3.5) cover by winning by more than 3.5 points (16)
Moneyline: Celtics win as -154 favorites (bet $10 to win $16.49 total); Warriors were +120 underdogs (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 214 points scored by both teams combined (216)
Golden State Warriors
The Boston Celtics are 9-1 (90%) against the spread vs. the Golden State Warriors off two or more days rest over their last 10 games
NOTES: Over bettors cashed despite the teams not scoring in the final two minutes. … Steph Curry led Golden State with 31 points but was hurt late in the fourth quarter after Boston’s Al Horford rolled into his leg. … The Warriors faltered late, scoring 11 points in the fourth quarter. … Boston’s Jaylen Brown scored 17 of his team-high 27 points in the first quarter.
Warriors 107, Celtics 88
Point spread: Warriors (-5) cover by winning by more than 5 points (19)
Moneyline: Warriors win as -213 favorites (bet $10 to win $14.69 total); Celtics were +155 underdogs (bet $10 to win $25.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: Under 214 points scored by both teams combined (195)
Golden State Warriors
The Boston Celtics are 6-1 (85.7%) against the spread vs. the Golden State Warriors on the road off two or more days rest over their last 7 games
NOTES: Golden State pulled away by outscoring Boston 35-14 in the third quarter, capped by Jordan Poole‘s 3-pointer from just inside midcourt with 1.5 seconds remaining for an 87-64 lead. … The Warriors used a 43-14 run from late in the second quarter until early in the fourth to take control.
Celtics 120, Warriors 108
Point spread: Celtics (+4) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Celtics win as +130 underdogs (bet $10 to win $23 total); Warriors were -175 favorite (bet $10 to win $15.71 total);
Total scoring over/under: Over 211.5 points scored by both teams combined (228)
Golden State Warriors
The Boston Celtics are 5-0 (100%) against the spread vs. the Golden State Warriors across the regular season and playoffs since the start of 2020/2021
SERIES SCHEDULE (all games on ABC)
Game 1: Celtics 120, Warriors 108
Game 2: Warriors 107, Celtics 88
Game 3: Warriors @ Celtics, 9 p.m. ET Wednesday
Game 4: Warriors @ Celtics, 9 p.m. ET Friday
Game 5: Celtics @ Warriors, 8 p.m. ET Monday
Game 6: Warriors @ Celtics, 9 p.m. ET June 16 *
Game 7: Celtics @ Warriors, 8 p.m. ET June 19 *
* = if necessary
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